Alabama is booming, but not everywhere. Some areas are thriving, while others are quietly fading away. And this is the part most people miss: understanding where and why these changes are happening can reveal a lot about the state's future.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Census Bureau released detailed population estimates, offering a granular look at Alabama's growth and decline. These numbers, broken down to the smallest geographic areas, paint a fascinating picture of the state's evolving landscape. For instance, Huntsville and coastal regions are experiencing significant growth, as are major college towns and Birmingham's suburbs. But here's where it gets controversial: central Birmingham, Mobile, and much of rural Alabama are seeing population losses. Why is this happening, and what does it mean for these communities?
To create this detailed map, AL.com analyzed population changes at the census tract level between 2020 and 2024, the most recent data available. Census tracts are among the smallest geographic units tracked by the Census, providing a precise view of growth and decline within Alabama's 67 counties.
So, where is Alabama growing the fastest? The top spot goes to census tract 303.51 in Shelby County, located in the southern part of Pelham, home to Blueberry Estates. This area saw a staggering 133% growth, one of only two tracts to more than double in size during this period. The other is tract 9800 in Mobile County, which includes the University of South Alabama. Other fast-growing tracts are found in Tuscaloosa, Limestone, Baldwin, Jefferson, Madison, and Montgomery counties.
But growth isn’t universal. Some areas are shrinking at an alarming rate. Alabama’s fastest-shrinking tract is 106.05 in Jefferson County, part of Fairfield, which lost 57% of its population—the only tract in the state to halve in size. Jefferson, Mobile, and Dallas counties each appear twice on the list of the 10 fastest-shrinking tracts, joined by Choctaw, Monroe, Franklin, and Butler counties.
Overall, about 42% of Alabama’s census tracts lost population during this period. Rural counties, particularly those in the Black Belt region, saw even higher rates of decline. For example, Conecuh, Washington, and Wilcox counties saw 80% of their tracts shrink, while Mobile County lost population in 55% of its tracts and Montgomery County in 53%. Even Jefferson County, the state’s most populous and home to Birmingham, saw 47% of its tracts lose residents.
In contrast, Madison County, home to Huntsville, saw only 23% of its tracts shrink, and fast-growing Baldwin County saw just 16% lose population. The standout, however, is tiny Clay County, with only four census tracts—all of which grew, achieving 100% growth.
These trends raise important questions: What drives growth in some areas while others decline? Is this a natural shift, or are there deeper economic or social factors at play? And what can be done to support struggling communities? Do you think these trends will continue, or will we see a reversal in the coming years? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a conversation about Alabama’s future.
